HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione.

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

  • DrDiaphanous estimated 20% on 2013-05-10
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “seems like a pretty exhaustive disjunction to meon 2013-06-10
  • DrDiaphanous changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” and changed their prediction from “In HPMOR, neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione.” on 2013-06-10
  • ygert estimated 2% on 2013-06-10
  • a0c4a123f7 estimated 5% and said “.3 * .4 * .6 * .8 * 1 0.0576on 2013-06-10
  • ShIxtan estimated 5% on 2013-06-30
  • lavalamp estimated 5% on 2013-07-02
  • nigr estimated 1% on 2013-08-15
  • player_03 estimated 10% on 2014-04-26
  • solipsist estimated 40% and said “My heart says Nicolas Flamel or Baba Yaga. Actually, my hearts says both.on 2014-05-04
  • qznc estimated 10% on 2014-07-14
  • DrDiaphanous  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-02-19.

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