HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione.

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

• DrDiaphanous estimated 20% on 2013-05-10
• gwern estimated 10% and said “seems like a pretty exhaustive disjunction to me” on 2013-06-10
• DrDiaphanous changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” and changed their prediction from “In HPMOR, neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione.” on 2013-06-10
• ygert estimated 2% on 2013-06-10
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 5% and said “.3 * .4 * .6 * .8 * 1 0.0576” on 2013-06-10
• ShIxtan estimated 5% on 2013-06-30
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2013-07-02
• nigr estimated 1% on 2013-08-15
• player_03 estimated 10% on 2014-04-26
• solipsist estimated 40% and said “My heart says Nicolas Flamel or Baba Yaga. Actually, my hearts says both.” on 2014-05-04
• qznc estimated 10% on 2014-07-14
• DrDiaphanous   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-02-19.