No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.

• ioannes estimated 80% on 2017-01-20
• ioannes said “h/t http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176966” on 2017-01-20
• two2thehead said “Define ‘western Europe’ please.” on 2017-01-21
• ioannes said “Following the standard definition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Europe” on 2017-01-21
• ioannes said “Oh, turns out it’s less standard than I thought. Edited to “EU”” on 2017-01-21
• ioannes changed the deadline from “on 2018-01-16” and changed their prediction from “No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017” on 2017-01-21
• two2thehead said “Not trying to tell you what to do, but I recommend editing your linked prediction to be similar.” on 2017-01-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 66% on 2017-01-21
• two2thehead estimated 95% on 2017-01-21
• equivrel estimated 85% on 2017-01-29
• ioannes   judged this prediction right on 2018-01-17.