PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Trump will win a second term

Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.

  • regex estimated 90% on 2017-01-30
  • regex said “This is wrong if Trump dies in the meantime or does not run for reelection.” on 2017-01-30
  • regex changed the deadline from “on 2020-11-08” and changed their prediction from “Trump will will win a second term” on 2017-01-30
  • atomicspaceman estimated 60% and said “He will be benefiting from the positive economic trends coming into his first term, and American presidents very frequently go on to a second term.” on 2017-01-30
  • themusicgod1 estimated 51% on 2017-01-30
  • themusicgod1 said “assuming that this includes possibility of him crossing the rubicon and doing away with elections” on 2017-01-30
  • penten estimated 45% on 2017-01-30
  • playablecharacter estimated 65% on 2017-01-30
  • aseyfarth estimated 40% and said “Presidents normally reelected, but reasonable chance of serious misstep (impeachment or at least mistake so he’s unelectable) or dying, plus we know dem’s had more votes in 2016 (he was unlikely to win first time)” on 2017-01-30
  • TheCometKing estimated 40% on 2017-01-31
  • rmeador estimated 20% on 2017-01-31
  • HonoreDB estimated 40% on 2017-02-01
  • playablecharacter estimated 70% and said “Trump’s chances have gotten better” on 2017-02-02
  • tsssssskl   judged this prediction right on 2017-02-02.
  • tsssssskl   judged this prediction unknown on 2017-02-02.
  • tsssssskl estimated 96% on 2017-02-02
  • Michael Dickens estimated 40% and said “Trump already has fairly low approval ratings and he did lose the popular vote, which suggests he’s somewhat less likely than the base rate to win. Of 5 presidents who lost the popular vote, only 1 (Bush) got re-elected.” on 2017-02-05
  • ioannes estimated 40% and said “lol at the >90% predictions” on 2017-02-05
  • two2thehead estimated 40% on 2017-02-06
  • splorridge estimated 42% on 2017-02-06
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2017-02-07
  • regex said “@ioannes Note I predicted Trump would win the nomination and about a month and a half before the election predicted he would win the presidency. This is primarily here for testing the framework that led to those accurate predictions.” on 2017-02-13
  • ioannes said “@regex I don’t understand your comment, sorry.I’m loling because I don’t see the case for >70% confidence here. ” on 2017-02-13
  • pent estimated 70% on 2017-02-21
  • danielfilan estimated 35% on 2017-03-21
  • gwern estimated 35% and said “incumbents have ~55% re-election odds, so survival+running+election ought to definitely be <55%” on 2017-03-31
  • technicalities estimated 40% on 2017-03-31
  • 117brian estimated 30% on 2017-05-20
  • Baeboo estimated 35% on 2017-08-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 30% on 2017-08-10
  • MultiplyByZer0 estimated 50% on 2017-08-10
  • BaesTheorem estimated 30% on 2017-08-19
  • Baeboo estimated 23% on 2017-09-03
  • Baeboo estimated 26% on 2017-09-03
  • Baeboo estimated 29% on 2017-09-17
  • Baeboo estimated 33% on 2017-09-29
  • Baeboo estimated 32% on 2017-10-03
  • Baeboo estimated 34% on 2017-10-09
  • Medea estimated 20% on 2017-10-15
  • Baeboo estimated 33% on 2017-10-15
  • Flenser estimated 35% on 2017-11-08
  • futurulus estimated 55% on 2017-11-15
  • Baeboo estimated 36% on 2017-11-16
  • Jach estimated 55% on 2017-11-17
  • Baeboo estimated 37% on 2017-12-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 38% on 2017-12-02
  • Baeboo estimated 31% on 2017-12-14
  • atomicspaceman estimated 49% on 2018-01-05
  • davatk estimated 32% on 2018-04-17
  • kmcharliecat estimated 46% on 2018-05-07
  • kiimberlie estimated 30% on 2018-05-16
  • ejlflop estimated 75% on 2018-06-08
  • JTPeterson estimated 35% on 2018-06-08
  • pranomostro estimated 65% on 2018-09-19
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 35% on 2018-11-07
  • jazzsolo estimated 40% on 2018-12-03
  • aarongertler estimated 47% on 2018-12-06
  • Baeboo estimated 35% on 2018-12-12
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2019-02-25
  • AlexLamson estimated 40% on 2019-04-16
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
  • Baeboo estimated 38% on 2019-04-26
  • WilliamKiely estimated 45% and said “+/-5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/192652” on 2019-08-13
  • bcongdon estimated 60% on 2020-01-14
  • peter_hurford estimated 45% on 2020-01-14
  • Reactionaryhistorian estimated 65% on 2020-02-12
  • jazzsolo estimated 60% on 2020-03-13
  • qznc estimated 60% on 2020-04-15
  • MultiplyByZer0 estimated 40% on 2020-06-12
  • sty.silver estimated 33% on 2020-06-25
  • Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 27% on 2020-08-15
  • NickN estimated 80% on 2020-08-22
  • m1el estimated 70% on 2020-08-30
  • grin estimated 50% on 2020-09-04
  • najdorf estimated 99% on 2020-09-04
  • TracyPoff estimated 40% on 2020-09-04
  • jamesrom estimated 95% on 2020-09-05
  • NickN estimated 80% on 2020-09-06
  • Medea estimated 45% on 2020-09-11
  • regex estimated 25% and said “The pandemic totally crushed his chances. ” on 2020-10-19
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 15% on 2020-10-20
  • Laurent Bossavit   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-07.
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Taking a moment to sneer at everyone who put 90+.” on 2020-11-09
  • HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-13.
  • regex   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-20.