Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
- gwern estimated 15% on 2017-03-17
- gwern said “she has had plenty of opportunity to do so in the past decades, abdication is never mentioned in funeral planning, it would put in Charles, and she likely intends to imitate Queen Victoria (her closest predecessor) in dying in harness” on 2017-03-17
- gwern said “many leaders prefer to die in office. Pope Benedict’s abdication reason doesn’t apply because popes actually run things and so it matters if they’re senile or tired. the Queen is ceremonial and a ‘circus animal’” on 2017-03-17
- ioannes estimated 10% on 2017-03-17
- themusicgod1 estimated 13% on 2017-03-18
- KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 6% on 2017-03-19
- KnaveOfAllTrades said “Are there any noteworthy pathways for this other than an abolition of monarchy? (Indeed, in particular an abolition that did not have terms set to take effect upon her death)” on 2017-03-19
- KnaveOfAllTrades said “I guess a non-marital scandal e.g. if something emerges about Diana” on 2017-03-19
- danielfilan estimated 3% on 2017-03-21
- KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 2% on 2017-03-21
- orionstein estimated 3% on 2017-03-22
- JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2017-03-23
- Bruno Parga estimated 3% on 2017-03-24
- earfluffy estimated 15% on 2017-03-31
- pkfalu92 estimated 12% on 2017-05-01
- Medea estimated 20% on 2017-10-15
- Shannon estimated 10% and said “If Elizabeth II wanted to abdicate, she almost certainly would have done it before now.” on 2018-02-20
- ccokeefe estimated 9% on 2018-02-20
- PseudonymousUser estimated 4% on 2018-02-21
- JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2018-02-22
- Athrithalix estimated 4% on 2018-03-14
- davatk estimated 15% on 2018-04-26
- kiimberlie estimated 7% on 2018-05-16
- pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-09-19
- PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2018-11-07
- deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
- Baeboo estimated 6% on 2019-04-26
- qznc estimated 5% on 2020-04-15
- MichaelBlack estimated 0% on 2020-06-23
- Medea estimated 5% on 2020-09-11
- Morpheus estimated 7% on 2021-02-15
- Baeboo estimated 5% on 2021-02-16
- hampuslj estimated 5% on 2021-02-20
- Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2021-03-31
- Leo estimated 1% on 2021-12-04
- Baeboo estimated 3% on 2021-12-04
- PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2022-06-01
- Baeboo judged this prediction wrong on 2022-09-08.