Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.

Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2017-03-17
  • gwern said “she has had plenty of opportunity to do so in the past decades, abdication is never mentioned in funeral planning, it would put in Charles, and she likely intends to imitate Queen Victoria (her closest predecessor) in dying in harnesson 2017-03-17
  • gwern said “many leaders prefer to die in office. Pope Benedict’s abdication reason doesn’t apply because popes actually run things and so it matters if they’re senile or tired. the Queen is ceremonial and a ‘circus animal’on 2017-03-17
  • ioannes estimated 10% on 2017-03-17
  • themusicgod1 estimated 13% on 2017-03-18
  • KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 6% on 2017-03-19
  • KnaveOfAllTrades said “Are there any noteworthy pathways for this other than an abolition of monarchy? (Indeed, in particular an abolition that did not have terms set to take effect upon her death)on 2017-03-19
  • KnaveOfAllTrades said “I guess a non-marital scandal e.g. if something emerges about Dianaon 2017-03-19
  • danielfilan estimated 3% on 2017-03-21
  • KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 2% on 2017-03-21
  • orionstein estimated 3% on 2017-03-22
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2017-03-23
  • Bruno Parga estimated 3% on 2017-03-24
  • earfluffy estimated 15% on 2017-03-31
  • pkfalu92 estimated 12% on 2017-05-01
  • Medea estimated 20% on 2017-10-15

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