California's Proposition 19 will be approved. (This doesn't cover legal action after the election, just that it gets a simple majority.)
- ggreer estimated 40% on 2010-09-30
- gwern estimated 30% and said “I should note I’m currently shorting $50 of this on Intrade: https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=702407&z=1285860588558” on 2010-09-30
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2010-11-03.
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