North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
- two2thehead estimated 85% on 2017-03-24
- two2thehead said “List of North Korean Nuclear tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea ” on 2017-03-24
- gwern estimated 80% on 2017-03-24
- themusicgod1 estimated 55% and said “related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180185” on 2017-03-25
- technicalities estimated 75% on 2017-03-25
- custom estimated 90% on 2017-03-27
- ioannes estimated 80% on 2017-03-27
- dzb5349 estimated 30% and said “despite political will of DPRK leadership to conduct tests there is a monetary, scientifically and militarily factors attached to this. ” on 2017-04-03
- pkfalu92 estimated 80% on 2017-05-01
- technicalities estimated 30% and said “Bad news for our Brier scores, good news for the world : https://twitter.com/pearkes/status/864452584584695809” on 2017-05-16
- themusicgod1 estimated 51% and said “in light of above link” on 2017-05-16
- two2thehead estimated 75% on 2017-05-17
- themusicgod1 judged this prediction right on 2017-09-09.