PredictionBook: Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018

gwern estimated 84% on 2017-03-31

gwern said “end of 2017: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/181789” on 2017-03-31

themusicgod1 said “gwern: are you sure about that(2017)?” on 2017-03-31

themusicgod1 said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/181145 pretty sure you meant this.” on 2017-03-31

themusicgod1 estimated 85% on 2017-03-31

playablecharacter estimated 90% on 2017-03-31

axl5073 estimated 95% on 2017-04-01

sole21000 estimated 76% on 2017-04-04

custom estimated 85% on 2017-04-05

ioannes estimated 80% on 2017-04-05

CarlShulman estimated 85% on 2017-04-06

Somni estimated 80% on 2017-04-08

Aabcehmu estimated 87% on 2017-04-08

Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on 2017-04-11

PseudonymousUser estimated 90% and said “Only thing I can think of is Russia-related scandal exploding beyond plausible worst-case scenarios at present.” on 2017-04-11

EloiseRosen estimated 89% on 2017-04-13

WhyThatTyGuy estimated 95% on 2017-04-13

Nick.dylan estimated 95% and said “Even worst-case scenario with a Democratic senate, impeachment processes can take a long time. If Trump leaves office in 2017/2018 it will likely be due to illness.” on 2017-04-14

Venryx estimated 93% on 2017-04-16

danielfilan estimated 75% on 2017-04-16

pkfalu92 estimated 89% on 2017-05-01

ioannes estimated 78% on 2017-05-13

two2thehead estimated 80% on 2017-05-13

ioannes estimated 73% on 2017-05-18

117brian estimated 80% on 2017-05-20

tymotm estimated 90% on 2017-05-23

dipitashick estimated 82% on 2017-05-28

Pablo estimated 86% on 2017-06-16

Baeboo estimated 81% on 2017-08-16

Baeboo estimated 65% on 2017-08-16

Baeboo estimated 64% on 2017-08-22

Pablo estimated 93% on 2017-08-22

Baeboo estimated 63% on 2017-09-03

Baeboo estimated 68% on 2017-09-17

Baeboo estimated 69% on 2017-09-29

Baeboo estimated 68% on 2017-10-03

Baeboo estimated 67% on 2017-10-09

Medea estimated 60% on 2017-10-15

timmartin estimated 90% on 2017-11-04

Baeboo estimated 66% on 2017-11-22

Baeboo estimated 65% on 2017-12-02

aoeu estimated 94% and said “health issues are my only concern.” on 2017-12-23

ambisinister estimated 90% on 2017-12-24

krazemon estimated 80% on 2017-12-27

Baeboo estimated 80% on 2018-01-02

Bruno Parga estimated 97% and said “It is very hard to think of a scandal that would hurt him so much he’d resign. Even if they win every Senate seat, the Dems won’t have enough of a majority to remove him.” on 2018-01-03

Baeboo estimated 87% on 2018-02-07

enolan estimated 95% on 2018-03-23

Athrithalix estimated 82% on 2018-03-27

avi estimated 100% on 2018-05-08

Andrew MacFie estimated 70% on 2018-06-18

vinegar estimated 95% on 2018-10-25

Selentelechia estimated 98% on 2018-11-13

Baeboo estimated 97% on 2018-11-15

moyamo estimated 90% on 2018-11-15