Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018

Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01

  • gwern estimated 84% on 2017-03-31
  • gwern said “end of 2017: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/181789on 2017-03-31
  • themusicgod1 said “gwern: are you sure about that(2017)?on 2017-03-31
  • themusicgod1 said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/181145 pretty sure you meant this.on 2017-03-31
  • themusicgod1 estimated 85% on 2017-03-31
  • playablecharacter estimated 90% on 2017-03-31
  • axl5073 estimated 95% on 2017-04-01
  • sole21000 estimated 76% on 2017-04-04
  • custom estimated 85% on 2017-04-05
  • ioannes estimated 80% on 2017-04-05
  • CarlShulman estimated 85% on 2017-04-06
  • Somni estimated 80% on 2017-04-08
  • Aabcehmu estimated 87% on 2017-04-08
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on 2017-04-11
  • pvoberstein estimated 90% and said “Only thing I can think of is Russia-related scandal exploding beyond plausible worst-case scenarios at present.on 2017-04-11
  • EloiseRosen estimated 89% on 2017-04-13
  • WhyThatTyGuy estimated 95% on 2017-04-13
  • Nick.dylan estimated 95% and said “Even worst-case scenario with a Democratic senate, impeachment processes can take a long time. If Trump leaves office in 2017/2018 it will likely be due to illness.on 2017-04-14
  • Venryx estimated 93% on 2017-04-16
  • danielfilan estimated 75% on 2017-04-16
  • pkfalu92 estimated 89% on 2017-05-01
  • ioannes estimated 78% on 2017-05-13
  • two2thehead estimated 80% on 2017-05-13
  • ioannes estimated 73% on 2017-05-18
  • 117brian estimated 80% on 2017-05-20
  • tymotm estimated 90% on 2017-05-23
  • dipitashick estimated 82% on 2017-05-28
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 86% on 2017-06-16
  • Baeboo estimated 81% on 2017-08-16
  • Baeboo estimated 65% on 2017-08-16
  • Baeboo estimated 64% on 2017-08-22
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 93% on 2017-08-22
  • Baeboo estimated 63% on 2017-09-03
  • Baeboo estimated 68% on 2017-09-17
  • Baeboo estimated 69% on 2017-09-29
  • Baeboo estimated 68% on 2017-10-03
  • Baeboo estimated 67% on 2017-10-09
  • Medea estimated 60% on 2017-10-15
  • timmartin estimated 90% on 2017-11-04
  • Baeboo estimated 66% on 2017-11-22
  • Baeboo estimated 65% on 2017-12-02
  • aoeu estimated 94% and said “health issues are my only concern.on 2017-12-23
  • ambisinister estimated 90% on 2017-12-24
  • krazemon estimated 80% on 2017-12-27
  • Baeboo estimated 80% on 2018-01-02
  • Bruno Parga estimated 97% and said “It is very hard to think of a scandal that would hurt him so much he’d resign. Even if they win every Senate seat, the Dems won’t have enough of a majority to remove him.on 2018-01-03
  • Baeboo estimated 87% on 2018-02-07
  • enolan estimated 95% on 2018-03-23
  • Athrithalix estimated 82% 30 days ago

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