Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-06-22.
- gwern estimated 95% on 2010-09-30
- gwern said “Success = >=10% of image files; currently jpeg=90% and png/etc=10%. see http://code.google.com/speed/webp/docs/c_study.html for stats (1m random images)” on 2010-09-30
- gwern said “criticism: http://x264dev.multimedia.cx/?p=541” on 2010-10-01
- saturn estimated 75% on 2012-03-28
- pranomostro estimated 95% on 2019-01-09
- Baeboo estimated 99% on 2019-01-10
- Baeboo estimated 96% on 2019-01-29
- Baeboo estimated 97% on 2020-05-27
- Baeboo said “https://almanac.httparchive.org/en/2021/media#format-adoption” on 2022-06-22
- Baeboo judged this prediction right on 2022-06-22.