President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
- John8128 estimated 65% on 2017-05-16
- themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2017-05-16
- Jayson Virissimo said “Exactly, or anytime before?” on 2017-05-17
- themusicgod1 said “on means exactly. by would mean before” on 2017-05-17
- penten estimated 1% on 2017-05-17
- Nve estimated 0% and said “Never say never right?” on 2017-05-18
- Bismagician estimated 0% and said “Technically I’m guessing .00149% chance, considering I’m 98% certain he completes his first term, 2% divided by the remaining 1,342 days is about .00149%.” on 2017-05-18
- danielfilan estimated 0% on 2017-05-19
- piers109uk estimated 0% and said “I am offended by the concept of “0%” chance, but “epsilon” doesn’t seem to be a valid input.” on 2017-05-20
- JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2017-05-20
- JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2017-05-20
- Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2017-05-23
- HonoreDB estimated 0% and said “I want to hear the kabbalah behind this, though :p” on 2017-05-23
- tedks estimated 46% and said “piers, 0 and 100 are understood on predictionbook to mean what they should.Personally I’m not so convinced of the source of this claim, but it seems realistic.” on 2017-05-24
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2017-05-24
- holycow81 said “Why 146th?” on 2017-05-25
- gwern estimated 0% on 2017-05-25
- holycow81 estimated 0% on 2017-05-26
- Mike estimated 1% and said “There is never a 0% chance of anything happening” on 2017-06-03
- two2thehead estimated 0% on 2017-06-03
- Pablo estimated 0% on 2017-06-15
- Pablo estimated 70% on 2017-06-15
- two2thehead judged this prediction wrong on 2017-06-15.