President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office

Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.

  • John8128 estimated 65% on 2017-05-16
  • themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2017-05-16
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Exactly, or anytime before?on 2017-05-17
  • themusicgod1 said “on means exactly. by would mean beforeon 2017-05-17
  • penten estimated 1% on 2017-05-17
  • Nve estimated 0% and said “Never say never right?on 2017-05-18
  • Bismagician estimated 0% and said “Technically I’m guessing .00149% chance, considering I’m 98% certain he completes his first term, 2% divided by the remaining 1,342 days is about .00149%.on 2017-05-18
  • danielfilan estimated 0% on 2017-05-19
  • piers109uk estimated 0% and said “I am offended by the concept of “0%” chance, but “epsilon” doesn’t seem to be a valid input.on 2017-05-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2017-05-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2017-05-20
  • Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2017-05-23
  • HonoreDB estimated 0% and said “I want to hear the kabbalah behind this, though :pon 2017-05-23
  • tedks estimated 46% and said “piers, 0 and 100 are understood on predictionbook to mean what they should.Personally I’m not so convinced of the source of this claim, but it seems realistic.on 2017-05-24
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2017-05-24
  • holycow81 said “Why 146th?on 2017-05-25
  • gwern estimated 0% on 2017-05-25
  • holycow81 estimated 0% on 2017-05-26
  • Mike estimated 1% and said “There is never a 0% chance of anything happeningon 2017-06-03
  • two2thehead estimated 0% on 2017-06-03
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 0% on 2017-06-15
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 70% on 2017-06-15
  • two2thehead  judged this prediction wrong on 2017-06-15.

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