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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs.

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.

  • themusicgod1 estimated 76% on 2017-06-10
  • penten estimated 5% on 2017-06-12
  • jbeshir estimated 2% and said “This would be more than three times the total value of all stocks in the world.” on 2017-06-13
  • jbeshir said “The bitcoin market cap, I mean.” on 2017-06-13
  • themusicgod1 said “‘total value of all stocks’ have included bitcoin stocks for quite some time: that suggests bitcoin will be 75% of stock market.” on 2017-06-13
  • jbeshir said “For another comparison, the total amount of circulating fiat in the world today is worth ~4 trillion USD (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circulation_10mil/BTC would require Bitcoin’s current market cap of 45 billion to rise to 160 trillion.” on 2017-06-14
  • jbeshir said “(And BTC is not any percentage of the stock market, just like USD and gold are not any percentage of the stock market; it’s either a commodity or currency. It suggests the circulating Bitcoin would be able to buy all stocks multiple times over.)” on 2017-06-14
  • bendini estimated 1% and said “on what planet are you living on?” on 2017-06-17
  • danielfilan estimated 2% on 2017-06-17
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “presumably this is actually a bet on hyperinflation of the USD?” on 2017-06-18
  • themusicgod1 said “or any other currency, such as VEF” on 2017-06-18
  • themusicgod1 said “The current marketcap is at 360TVEF, or about 47T$” on 2017-06-18
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2017-06-19
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2017-06-21
  • gwern said “presumably everyone giving >0% is running out to get loans to buy bitcoin.” on 2017-06-21
  • two2thehead estimated 0% and said “Whatever gwerny says is good enough for me!” on 2017-06-21
  • davidmanheim estimated 20% and said “Market cap isn’t the right comparison – it’s a combination of an asset and a medium of exchange – but I think it’s unclear how stable it is at all.” on 2017-06-22
  • crabman estimated 0% on 2017-06-22
  • imaxwell estimated 0% and said “If you put this at 1% it follows that you should be valuing Bitcoin at $100 000 right now, modulo time preference.” on 2017-06-22
  • themusicgod1 said “then the only question is whether you value your personal safety sufficiently to avoid selling for much higher than that in Venezuela / whether you have ability to travel there to sell since it’s higher than that there. ” on 2017-06-23
  • Pablo estimated 0% on 2017-09-10
  • themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2017-10-13.
  • themusicgod1 said “Actually double that now.” on 2017-10-13
  • Pablo said “Why was this prediction judged right? Please provide link to relevant market.” on 2017-10-17
  • themusicgod1 said “localbitcoinVEF. it’s still up there” on 2017-10-18
  • Pablo said “That’s only true if you use the Venezuelan government official exchange rate, rather than the actual market exchange rates. If you use official rates, you can make all sorts of crazy predictions, not just about BTC.” on 2017-10-18
  • Pablo said “E.g. “A Coca-Cola bottle will cost USD 3,000 on any market where trading occurs.” I think it’s clear that this should resolve FALSE.” on 2017-10-18
  • Pablo   judged this prediction unknown on 2017-10-18.
  • Pablo said “I’m temporarily judging this ‘Unknown’ until a consensus is reached.” on 2017-10-18
  • themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2017-10-19.
  • themusicgod1 said “the market is consensus. that’s what markets are.” on 2017-10-19
  • themusicgod1 said “the whole point of bitcoin is to measure how crazy the world has gotten since 2009. which is now, very. Buy low, sell high.” on 2017-10-19
  • Pablo said “My point is precisely that, if you use official VEF exchange rates to judge the prediction, BTC no longer plays any role in “measur[ing] how crazy the world has gotten since 2009”.” on 2017-10-19
  • Pablo said “The absurdly high price is not telling anything about the world—it’s just an artefact of your decision to rely on a meaningless currency.” on 2017-10-19
  • gwern said “VEF does not trade on any market at those official government rates, so it obviously does not trade at $10m/btc regardless of whether you go through another currency and this is obviously wrong as it was always going to be wrong.” on 2017-10-19
  • gwern said “themusicgod1, stop quibbling when your previous comments indicated no such criteria were to be applied. Now that your prediction was wrong, as most of your predictions are, it is shameful and embarrassing.” on 2017-10-19
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-10-19.
  • gwern said “BTW themusicgod1: consider this a final warning. Your predictions are bad, your arguments are bad, and you clutter up PB. I lost my patience with you a long time ago. Undo my judgment here and I will finally ask Trike to ban you.” on 2017-10-19
  • themusicgod1 said “go ahead, ban me. be my guest. just judge the ‘themusicgod1 is banned on pb’ true.” on 2017-10-19
  • themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2017-10-19.
  • themusicgod1 said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178256” on 2017-10-19
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-10-19.
  • PseudonymousUser said “I guess this could in theory happen before the deadline, marking unknown” on 2017-10-19
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction unknown on 2017-10-19.
  • tedks estimated 1% and said “Hyperinflation of USD isn’t impossible in this time span.” on 2017-10-20
  • timmartin estimated 0% on 2017-11-04
  • Tenobrus estimated 0% on 2017-11-09
  • bendini   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-12-27.