The Haruhi light novel series will conclude by 2015.

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

• gwern estimated 85% on 2010-10-05
• gwern said “background: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haruhi_Suzumiya First novel was published in 2003.” on 2010-10-05
• Anubhav estimated 20% and said “I doubt we’re much further than the halfway mark right now… ” on 2011-11-19
• gwern said “I dunno. I really don’t know where it’s going with the huge focus on Yuki, and rather mystifying discussions re time. I’m also no longer so sanguine about the other prediction. if reviewers don’t get it yet, they never will.” on 2011-11-19
• Anubhav said “Well, Yuki was always the author’s favourite character. That’s all there is to it. As to where it’s going… It looks to me as if the author’s just taking it wherever he feels like going, no planning involved. ” on 2011-11-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.
• gwern said “He’s really slowed down! He’s taking multiple years to do a light novel, while usually LNs are a year or less… He’s no NisiOisiN to be sure.” on 2015-01-01