Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years,

Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.

peterc estimated 93% on 2013-05-28
atroche estimated 10% and said “What makes you so sure, out of curiosity?” on 2013-05-30
FestiveBleak said “A patched version of the linux kernel does not count, correct?” on 2013-05-31
gwern estimated 15% and said “a kernel is a huge frigging job; they’d have to steal from somewhere, and that would not fit ‘very own kernel’.” on 2013-06-02
Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 10% on 2013-06-07
antsan estimated 5% on 2013-06-10
Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% and said “I am assuming that modifying the BSD kernel or something like that wouldn’t count.” on 2013-06-10
Michael Dickens estimated 20% on 2013-06-16
jasticE estimated 15% and said “assuming a somewhat strongly modified version of an existing kernel counts” on 2013-06-19
procran estimated 10% on 2013-06-19
Robert estimated 10% and said “I don’t think they have or will have enough experts in all areas required” on 2013-06-30
PseudonymousUser said “What if they create their own kernel, but it isn’t a replacement for Linux on desktop and mobile?” on 2013-11-02
PseudonymousUser said “Also, Canonical has no resources to replace Linux” on 2013-11-02
atroche estimated 5% on 2013-11-13
thompsonpaz estimated 0% on 2014-08-23
thompsonpaz said “ <a href="http://luxurywatchesonline56.webs.com"> blog </a> ” on 2015-04-03
dndtdong said “ <a href="http://mensswimwearonsale2.webs.com"> blog </a> ” on 2015-04-15
dndtdong said “<a href="http://www.funtiffany.com/">tiffany uk</a> ” on 2015-04-15
thompsonpaz estimated 0% on 2015-08-10
thompsonpaz said “ <a href="http://tiffany53.webs.com"> blog </a> <a href="http://tiffany53.webs.com"> </a> <a href="http://tiffany53.webs.com"> About blog </a>” on 2015-10-31
thompsonpaz said “ <a href="http://tiffany53.webs.com"> blog </a> <a href="http://tiffany53.webs.com"> </a> <a href="http://tiffany53.webs.com"> About blog </a>” on 2015-10-31
dndtdong said “ <a href="http://iwcreplica0.webs.com"> blog </a> <a href="http://iwcreplica0.webs.com"> </a> <a href="http://iwcreplica0.webs.com"> About blog </a>” on 2015-11-06
dndtdong said “ <a href="http://iwcreplica0.webs.com"> blog </a> ” on 2015-11-06
thompsonpaz said “ <a href="http://Tiffany850.webs.com"> blog </a> <a href="http://Tiffany850.webs.com"> </a> <a href="http://Tiffany850.webs.com"> About blog </a>” on 2015-11-12
thompsonpaz said “ <a href="http://Tiffany850.webs.com"> blog </a> <a href="http://Tiffany850.webs.com"> </a> <a href="http://Tiffany850.webs.com"> About blog </a>” on 2015-11-12
dndtdong said “ <a href="http://NikeAirMax92.webs.com"> blog </a> ” on 2015-11-28
PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2016-01-05
Jach estimated 10% and said “I think they’d need to poach people (e.g. Poettering) first.” on 2016-01-10
themusicgod1 estimated 10% on 2016-01-11
themusicgod1 estimated 0% and said “Not beyond the realm of possibility, but that’s kind of a stretch.” on 2016-01-11
crabman estimated 1% on 2018-04-11
moyamo judged this prediction wrong on 2018-06-13.