Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
- workbean estimated 90% on 2013-06-01
- RandomThinker estimated 60% on 2013-06-02
- gwern estimated 50% and said “big technical risk, they can afford to stay on S3, and I can’t think of any startups which went public and got off S3 – eg netflix is still on s3 afaik” on 2013-06-02
- quanticle estimated 30% and said “I just don’t see how it’d be beneficial to them. They’d be reinventing a lot of wheels, for what? Incremental gains, at best.” on 2013-06-03
- Ken estimated 30% on 2013-06-17
- mortehu estimated 60% and said “They will have problems sustaining growth with competition from companies running more efficient datacenters.” on 2013-11-16
- quanticle estimated 50% and said “Zocalo.” on 2014-07-15
- PseudonymousUser said “Big customers get special pricing from Amazon” on 2014-07-16
- quanticle estimated 25% and said “It’s September of 2014. No announcements from Dropbox, no news about them buying siginifcant DC space or hardware. Either they’re staying on S3, or they’re being more secretive than the NSA.” on 2014-09-24
- quanticle judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.
- quanticle said “It’s 2015 and they’re still on S3.” on 2015-01-01
- thompsonpaz said “<br><br><a href="http://thepatekphilippe1.webs.com"> blog </a><br><br>” on 2015-11-14
- workbean judged this prediction right on 2016-03-15.
- workbean said “Dropbox hasn’t IPOed and they have ditched S3 – http://www.wired.com/2016/03/epic-story-dropboxs-exodus-amazon-cloud-empire” on 2016-03-15
- PseudonymousUser said ““before they go public or before 2015” implies that the prediction ends before 2015 even if they didn’t go public by then. That is, either event triggers judgement. If you meant the meaning you’re re-judging by, [cont.]” on 2016-03-15
- PseudonymousUser said “you would have just written “Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public”” on 2016-03-15
- PseudonymousUser said “er never mind” on 2016-03-15
- quanticle judged this prediction wrong on 2016-03-16.
- quanticle judged this prediction right on 2016-03-16.