'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020

Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-10-23
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020-2029.htm#organs” on 2010-10-23
• gwern said “prediction doesn’t require commercialization, just lab demo” on 2010-10-23
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2010-10-23” on 2010-10-23
• phreeza estimated 75% and said “http://www.nature.com/news/miniature-human-liver-grown-in-mice-1.13324” on 2013-07-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 55% on 2019-01-09
• Baeboo estimated 70% on 2019-01-10
• Bruno Parga said “Not there yet: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/how-far-are-we-from-lab-grown-organ-transplants-y-combinator-startup-printing-a-road-map” on 2021-01-22
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-22.