'Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.' —Arthur C. Clarke

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-10-26
• gwern said “http://www.arthurcclarke.net/?scifi=3” on 2010-10-26
• kallman estimated 55% and said “Isn’t vigin galactic almost set to do the space tourism thing? The timeline is a bit dodgy, sure…” on 2010-11-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.