'Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.' —Arthur C. Clarke

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 1% on 2010-10-26
  • gwern said “http://www.arthurcclarke.net/?scifi=3on 2010-10-26
  • kallman estimated 55% and said “Isn’t vigin galactic almost set to do the space tourism thing? The timeline is a bit dodgy, sure…on 2010-11-20
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.

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