'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed “Project Spaceguard,” to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids,

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-10-26
• gwern said “http://www.arthurcclarke.net/?scifi=3” on 2010-10-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Conjunction fallacy. The specific location claims make it much more unlikely. ” on 2011-05-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-10-07
• Athrithalix estimated 0% on 2018-02-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 0% on 2019-01-08
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-12-31
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.