A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-10-27
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2020-2050” on 2010-10-27
• gwern said “the raw power may exist, but will desktop users pay for it?” on 2010-10-27
• kallman estimated 40% and said “Gwern: That’s why he defines a price – $1000 isn’t too much to pay if you’re looking at moderate to high end, afterall.” on 2010-11-20
• anonym estimated 40% on 2010-11-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 8% on 2019-01-08
• Bruno Parga said “The Kurzweilian unit of a “humanbrain” is equal to 20 PFLOP, per wiki. https://cutt.ly/GryxalB rates a laptop with a Core i3-8130U processor as ‘the best <$1000’. It turbos to 3.4 GHz, with 2 cores and 32 FP32 IPC, so at best it does 3.4G * 64” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “operations per cycle, which is way short of 20 PFLOPs (it doesn’t even get into TFLOP territory). Are these numbers sound? Should we mark this as wrong?” on 2020-01-01
• gwern said “You can’t leave out GPUs. That’s a major mistake. Who builds a $1k PC (not laptop) without a GPU, anyway?” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “Good point. But do GPUs perform 3 orders of magnitude more FLOPs than CPUs?” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “So, this thing https://cutt.ly/OryxXdv is not quite <$1000. Its GPU, per Wiki, seems to have at most 11 16-bit TFLOPS, still one prefix short of one kurzweil.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-03.