Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-10-27
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2020-2050” on 2010-10-27
• gwern said “10 years to perfect it to the point where it completely replaces silicon? no way Jose” on 2010-10-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-05-24
• Pablo estimated 4% on 2012-10-01
• halfwit estimated 7% on 2013-06-10
• dr_zeus estimated 75% and said “already exists: http://bit.ly/1TdUZP9 http://bit.ly/1HF2Ocx http://bit.ly/1cwFrFi Dominant is a wiggle word though.” on 2015-07-05
• JoshuaZ said “Dominant is a massive problem. It isn’t likely to even be the majority substrate by that time. And dominant may be a wiggle term but it pretty clearly implies majority at least. ” on 2015-07-05
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2016-10-07
• Athrithalix estimated 1% on 2018-02-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Not enough time left. ” on 2019-01-09
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.