HP MoR: We won't know who framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction inspired by http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-06-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-02.

  • NancyLebovitz estimated 50% on 2013-06-13
  • a0c4a123f7 estimated 70% on 2013-06-13
  • Huluk estimated 50% on 2013-06-14
  • RobertLumley estimated 35% and said “There’s a new arc coming out soon, and Eliezer has said there are only two arcs left in the book.on 2013-06-24
  • ShIxtan estimated 15% on 2013-06-30
  • NancyLebovitz changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” and changed their prediction from “We won't know who framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction inspired by http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095” on 2013-07-01
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “I agree, the story can’t end without unmasking the person behind the attacks, and the story seems increasingly like it will end http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4544on 2013-07-01
  • jaibot estimated 25% on 2013-07-02
  • William-Quixote estimated 20% on 2013-07-12
  • a0c4a123f7  judged this prediction right on 2014-01-02.

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