Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2010-10-27
  • gwern said “ 2010-10-27
  • gwern said “people are slow compared to reading; we may be social animals, but if it’s just a gloss on mechanical forms…on 2010-10-27
  • themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07
  • pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-08
  • gwern said “chatbots were a fad for a bit, but are already lowkey. Most information inquiries are still handled by doing a search engine search, and you certainly don’t buy stuff by dealing with a simulated person…on 2020-01-01
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.

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