Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-10-27
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2020-2050” on 2010-10-27
• gwern said “people are slow compared to reading; we may be social animals, but if it’s just a gloss on mechanical forms…” on 2010-10-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-08
• gwern said “chatbots were a fad for a bit, but are already lowkey. Most information inquiries are still handled by doing a search engine search, and you certainly don’t buy stuff by dealing with a simulated person…” on 2020-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.