'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-10-29
• gwern said “not happening on a wide scale like 10% of a city’s daily consumption – where is the energy coming from??? cost-effective my arse” on 2010-10-29
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020-2029.htm#verticalfarms” on 2010-10-29
• gwern said “background: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Vertical_farming” on 2010-10-29
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2025-01-01” and changed their prediction from “'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2024” on 2010-10-29
• TheScholar estimated 1% and said “Impossible, but people have failed doing obviously impossible things before, so I’ll give it 1%. It will never work though.” on 2010-10-31
• Nic_Smith estimated 15% on 2010-11-26
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2010-12-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “I’m not sure how large a scale this needs to be fulfilled. If just predicting their appearance and not that they are major then this is more likely. ” on 2011-05-26
• cjb230   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-08.
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-09.
• Ben Doherty estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-08