“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020”

Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2010-11-07
• gwern said “see http://www.longbets.org/588” on 2010-11-07
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1510 & http://www.longbets.org/297” on 2010-11-07
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 1% on 2016-01-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2016-01-19
• themusicgod1 estimated 10% on 2016-10-07
• Athrithalix estimated 11% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-08
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2019-01-13
• amadeu estimated 1% on 2019-04-07
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2019-04-09
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2019-04-09
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.