“I would put the odds of an independent [Bloomberg] candidacy for President in 2012 or 2016 at probably sixty to seventy per cent” —Joe Trippi

Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-11-09
• gwern said “http://www.newyorker.com/talk/2010/11/15/101115ta_talk_mcgrath” on 2010-11-09
• gwern said “http://en.wikipeda.org/wiki/Joe_Trippi” on 2010-11-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 40% on 2016-05-05
• Peteris estimated 0% and said “http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-07/michael-bloomberg-says-he-won-t-run-for-president-in-2016” on 2016-05-06
• Ken estimated 20% on 2016-05-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-01.