Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-11-12
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2019” on 2010-11-12
• gwern said “As if hundreds of millions of people will switch 100% to the Kindle or cellphones” on 2010-11-12
• anonym estimated 20% on 2010-11-27
• stephenh estimated 10% and said “Not by 2020. Maybe by 2030. Probably by 2050.” on 2010-12-11
• stephenh estimated 95% on 2010-12-11
• stephenh estimated 5% and said “oops, meant 95% against” on 2010-12-11
• gimpf estimated 20% on 2010-12-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-05-24
• Anubhav estimated 10% and said “Legacy organisations: Governments, universities… ” on 2011-10-12
• muflax estimated 1% on 2011-10-26
• Pablo estimated 10% on 2012-10-01
• RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “Kurzweil is always good for some bad predictions.” on 2012-10-01
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-10-01
• halfwit estimated 25% on 2013-06-10
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 45% and said “Depends on the ease of exchanging and creating documents. With the advent of NFC I’d put the prediction much closer to parity.” on 2013-06-10
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-08
• amadeu estimated 1% on 2019-04-07
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2019-04-09
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.