'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' —Ron Klatz

Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2010-11-14
  • gwern said “as quoted in The Futurist Nov 2010on 2010-11-14
  • gwern said “date derivation; Baby Boomers begin 1949; first centennarians reached in 1949. by then it should be obvious whether >half are still alive and will make iton 2010-11-14
  • gwern said “deeply skeptical because even if we postulate massive breakthroughs that shift the average out to 200 or so, baby boomers in too bad shape!on 2010-11-14
  • Nic_Smith estimated 1% and said “Won’t happen, although I’m a bit more optimistic for Gen-X on. I assume we mean Boomers alive now, and not all born? Makes a slight difference.on 2010-11-26
  • stephenh estimated 10% on 2010-12-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “I suspect we will also see this falsified well before the deadline.on 2011-09-02
  • themusicgod1 estimated 40% and said “We’ve lost a fair number of them already, esp in developing world, the ones left are going to have to make up for that.on 2016-10-07
  • pranomostro estimated 4% on 2019-01-08

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