'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' —Ron Klatz

Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-11-14
• gwern said “as quoted in The Futurist Nov 2010” on 2010-11-14
• gwern said “date derivation; Baby Boomers begin 1949; first centennarians reached in 1949. by then it should be obvious whether >half are still alive and will make it” on 2010-11-14
• gwern said “deeply skeptical because even if we postulate massive breakthroughs that shift the average out to 200 or so, baby boomers in too bad shape!” on 2010-11-14
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% and said “Won’t happen, although I’m a bit more optimistic for Gen-X on. I assume we mean Boomers alive now, and not all born? Makes a slight difference.” on 2010-11-26
• stephenh estimated 10% on 2010-12-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “I suspect we will also see this falsified well before the deadline.” on 2011-09-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 40% and said “We’ve lost a fair number of them already, esp in developing world, the ones left are going to have to make up for that.” on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 4% on 2019-01-08