“Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand

Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2010-11-17
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/590” on 2010-11-17
• gwern said “Sorry, Stewart. Anti-nukes is an article of religion, not science.” on 2010-11-17
• kallman estimated 15% and said “I wish they would – if we could have fission power we’d have way less waste. Utterly destroy wherever we decide to dump it, but clean air…” on 2010-11-20
• Nic_Smith estimated 5% on 2010-11-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-01-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Fukushima makes this less likely. ” on 2011-08-21
• saturn estimated 6% on 2012-03-28
• David estimated 1% on 2015-07-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-10-25
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “No chance, FOE is anti nuclear forever.” on 2015-11-27
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-12-01.