Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014

Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.

• dhoe estimated 60% on 2013-06-23
• Peter Hurford estimated 40% on 2013-06-26
• RandomThinker estimated 60% on 2013-06-28
• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2013-06-28
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% and said “I don’t think so. He has insider knowledge of how the USG works and is getting help from Wikileaks (which I’m sure knows plenty of good techniques for evading arrest).” on 2013-07-01
• gwern estimated 20% and said “Assange hasn’t been arrested yet. There are many proxies, and extradition fights can easily take more than the remaining 5 months of 2013…” on 2013-07-01
• phreeza estimated 5% and said “He seems smart enough to make it at least that long. I believe at some point he might turn himself in, when he gets tired of being stuck in limbo.” on 2013-07-02
• phreeza said “probably not this year though” on 2013-07-02
• Michael Dickens estimated 35% on 2013-07-08
• SPL estimated 40% on 2013-07-11
• halfwit estimated 30% on 2013-08-02
• halfwit estimated 1% on 2013-08-02
• jasticE estimated 1% on 2013-08-03
• drobb estimated 23% on 2013-09-10
• alecbrooks estimated 20% on 2013-10-08
• adbge estimated 26% on 2013-10-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2013-11-14
• fela estimated 13% on 2013-11-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-11-20
• fela estimated 2% on 2013-12-26
• dhoe   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.