HP MoR: Bellatrix Black burned Narcissa Malfoy alive.
- RobertLumley estimated 45% on 2013-06-24
- RobertLumley said ““Even less than you would I see Bellatrix Black freed,” the old wizard said. “She must not leave this prison alive, Amelia.”” on 2013-06-24
- RobertLumley said “Bellatrix starts with a high prior, since many people burned alive will have been burned by Bellatrix, estimate 20% probability that she wasn’t actually burned alive, because it doesn’t seem likely to include in the story otherwise.” on 2013-06-24
- RobertLumley changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” and changed their prediction from “[HPMOR] Bellatrix Black burned Narcissa Malfoy alive.” on 2013-07-01
- gwern said “other predictions for suspects: http://www.gwern.net/hpmor-predictions#narcissa” on 2013-07-01
- gwern estimated 15% and said “I am pretty skeptical that that comment refers to Narcissa rather than Black being the #2 man for Voldemort – both of them would be in charge of hunting her and cleaning up her messes” on 2013-07-01
- jaibot estimated 5% on 2013-07-02
- 75th estimated 0% on 2013-07-13
- RobertLumley changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-02” on 2015-01-05
- 75th judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.
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