Connor Leahy will publicly released his GPT-2-1.5b model by the end of July 2019.

Created by gwern on 2019-06-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-06-13.

• gwern estimated 75% on 2019-06-06
• nshepperd estimated 85% on 2019-06-06
• synthmeat estimated 15% on 2019-06-06
• pranomostro estimated 57% on 2019-06-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2019-06-11
• holomanga estimated 55% on 2019-06-12
• gwern said “He’s changed his mind and will not be releasing it: https://medium.com/@NPCollapse/the-hacker-learns-to-trust-62f3c1490f51” on 2019-06-13
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-06-13.