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The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.

  • kallman estimated 65% on 2010-11-20
  • gwern estimated 80% and said “Global or US?” on 2010-11-20
  • kallman said “I’m thinking global – hoping percentage as well, regardless of the “Theists maek more babby” argument” on 2010-11-23
  • Nic_Smith estimated 95% and said “….but I don’t expect the change to very large.” on 2010-11-26
  • kallman estimated 75% and said “Hm. I see there’s a lot of enthusiasm for the idea, going to have to edge higher.” on 2010-11-26
  • anonym estimated 75% on 2010-11-27
  • TheScholar estimated 95% and said “The percentage of theist will decline. But it all depends your definition of what a “god” is, e.g. does it incl. technological advanced aliens?” on 2010-11-29
  • kallman said “Well, they’re personally applied labels. It’s people who say they are athiest/agnostic, no matter if they actually are.” on 2010-11-30
  • kallman said “I specifically avoided that quandary in how I phrased the prediction, afterall.” on 2010-11-30
  • stephenh estimated 90% on 2010-12-11
  • gimpf estimated 40% on 2010-12-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 50% on 2011-09-03
  • JoshuaZ said “tags:religion, atheism” on 2011-09-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 52% on 2011-10-22
  • gwern said “suggestions on sourcing the judgement welcomed” on 2011-10-23
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2011-10-23
  • lavalamp estimated 60% on 2011-11-10
  • muflax estimated 70% and said “expect it to go up in US etc., but demographic changes might not cause huge differences” on 2011-11-11
  • Anubhav estimated 90% on 2011-11-11
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2011-11-12
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “No on global. Parts of Sub-Saharan African have above replacement fertility. India (although not as bad) still counts as a source of an increase in believers. The key word here is percentage. Not total number of atheist AND agnostic.” on 2016-04-21
  • jesselevine estimated 99% and said “Both atheist AND agnostic or atheist OR agnostic?” on 2016-04-22
  • JoshuaZ said “Interpreted it as counting percent atheist + percent agnostic – overlap. ” on 2016-04-22
  • jesselevine estimated 74% and said “upd8” on 2016-04-22
  • EloiseRosen estimated 60% on 2016-04-22
  • themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-07
  • pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-01-08
  • pranomostro estimated 65% on 2019-01-08
  • JoshuaZ said “Any good data sets to judge this one with?” on 2020-01-01
  • muflax said “i don’t have great datasets either, but i propose this as a reasonable basic guess: https://colinmathers.com/2020/09/30/global-trends-in-religiosity-and-atheism-1980-to-2020/ ” on 2021-09-10
  • muflax said “that implies that the trend is true for WEIRD people, not really elsewhere, and demographic changes globally reduce the percentage if anything. as this is about (narrow) labels anyway, i’ll judge this wrong (but i’m open to better data)” on 2021-09-10
  • muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-09-10.