The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01

  • kallman estimated 65% on 2010-11-20
  • gwern estimated 80% and said “Global or US?” on 2010-11-20
  • kallman said “I’m thinking global – hoping percentage as well, regardless of the “Theists maek more babby” argument” on 2010-11-23
  • Nic_Smith estimated 95% and said “….but I don’t expect the change to very large.” on 2010-11-26
  • kallman estimated 75% and said “Hm. I see there’s a lot of enthusiasm for the idea, going to have to edge higher.” on 2010-11-26
  • anonym estimated 75% on 2010-11-27
  • TheScholar estimated 95% and said “The percentage of theist will decline. But it all depends your definition of what a “god” is, e.g. does it incl. technological advanced aliens?” on 2010-11-29
  • kallman said “Well, they’re personally applied labels. It’s people who say they are athiest/agnostic, no matter if they actually are.” on 2010-11-30
  • kallman said “I specifically avoided that quandary in how I phrased the prediction, afterall.” on 2010-11-30
  • stephenh estimated 90% on 2010-12-11
  • gimpf estimated 40% on 2010-12-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 50% on 2011-09-03
  • JoshuaZ said “tags:religion, atheism” on 2011-09-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 52% on 2011-10-22
  • gwern said “suggestions on sourcing the judgement welcomed” on 2011-10-23
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2011-10-23
  • lavalamp estimated 60% on 2011-11-10
  • muflax estimated 70% and said “expect it to go up in US etc., but demographic changes might not cause huge differences” on 2011-11-11
  • Anubhav estimated 90% on 2011-11-11
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2011-11-12
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “No on global. Parts of Sub-Saharan African have above replacement fertility. India (although not as bad) still counts as a source of an increase in believers. The key word here is percentage. Not total number of atheist AND agnostic.” on 2016-04-21
  • jesselevine estimated 99% and said “Both atheist AND agnostic or atheist OR agnostic?” on 2016-04-22
  • JoshuaZ said “Interpreted it as counting percent atheist + percent agnostic – overlap. ” on 2016-04-22
  • jesselevine estimated 74% and said “upd8” on 2016-04-22
  • EloiseRosen estimated 60% on 2016-04-22
  • themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-07
  • pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-01-08
  • pranomostro estimated 65% on 2019-01-08
  • JoshuaZ said “Any good data sets to judge this one with?” on 2020-01-01

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