The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.
- PatrickAchtelik estimated 80% on 2010-11-24
- gwern estimated 20% and said “This sounds way vague & unjudgeable. what is a superstate? by many standards, the EU is a state” on 2010-11-24
- kallman estimated 10% and said “Too much water under the bridge. As willing as some seem to be to forget the past, many will never forgive attrocities of a millenium ago.” on 2010-11-26
- Nic_Smith estimated 25% on 2010-11-26
- muflax judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-12.
- muflax judged this prediction unknown on 2010-12-12.
- gimpf estimated 10% and said “If this means EU-wide uniform taxing (to some degree), central army, single passport, single constitution, single penal law, then no.” on 2010-12-12
- seifip estimated 40% on 2013-04-14
- themusicgod1 said “[x] central army [x] single constitution[ discussions ongoing ] – single passport. Penal law? Does the US have that?” on 2016-10-07
- pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-07
- Baeboo estimated 11% on 2019-01-08
- amadeu estimated 10% on 2019-04-07
- Baeboo estimated 8% on 2020-05-27
- wizzwizz4 estimated 5% and said “There are blockers. And those aren’t insurmountable hurdles, but I don’t think anybody cares to surmount them.” on 2020-05-27
- JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2020-05-27
- Baeboo estimated 4% on 2020-05-27
- NickN estimated 3% and said “Do all current members have to unite? Prediction was made before Brexit, would UK have to be part of that superstate?” on 2020-08-16
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