“[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive… The pre-modernist robust model of city-states… will prevail” — Nassim Taleb

Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-26; known on 2037-01-01

• Nic_Smith estimated 30% on 2010-11-26
• Nic_Smith said “From http://www.economist.com/node/17509373” on 2010-11-26
• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-11-26
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 25% on 2019-01-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “lol, nope” on 2019-04-12