'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-12-10
• gwern said “http://www.vetta.org/2009/12/the-teenies/” on 2010-12-10
• gwern said “cf. prediction about overall GDP: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1547” on 2010-12-10
• gwern estimated 80% and said “oh wait this isn’t per capita, the PPP is just purchasing power.” on 2010-12-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 60% and said “Could even exceed it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_” on 2019-01-08
• Bruno Parga said “Chinese GDP PPP is 127% of American. I say this means the prediction is wrong?” on 2019-12-30
• elephantower said “@Bruno makes sense to me.” on 2019-12-31
• elephantower said “(I’m not closing it b/c I’m not 100% sure it should be counted as wrong, but if the next person to see this agrees, they should close it)” on 2019-12-31
• Bruno Parga said “Nobody else has commented and, although OP might have meant “China at least 0.75 * US”, that’s not what the prediction literally says, so I’m marking this wrong.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.