'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-12-10
• gwern said “source: http://www.vetta.org/2009/12/the-teenies/” on 2010-12-10
• gwern said “2010 value of graphics card market is $63 billion: http://www.neoseeker.com/news/14426-graphics-card-sales-to-reach-63-billion-by-end-of-year/” on 2010-12-10
• gwern said “compare Roko’s prediction of business as usual: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1989” on 2010-12-10
• kallman estimated 45% and said “Status quo is god, but let’s see.” on 2010-12-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% and said “This is not happening with 4K displays, VR, deep learning, cryptocoin mining” on 2016-10-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 36% on 2016-10-06
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-01-08
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.