'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-08-16.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-12-10
• gwern said “http://www.vetta.org/2009/12/the-teenies/” on 2010-12-10
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1752” on 2010-12-10
• kallman estimated 55% and said “Define faster. 10 years to me suggests less of an improvement than that. Are we talking PCs or supercomputers?” on 2010-12-20
• gwern said “http://www.vetta.org/2010/12/goodbye-2010/ talks about top500 and 10^18 FLOPS, so shane seems to be talking about supercomputers (no prices, notice)” on 2010-12-21
• themusicgod1 said “Didn’t this happen? Doesn’t bitcoin give us a way to measure this more or less directly by virtue of hashpower / didn’t that 50x increase happen between dec ’10 and today?” on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 50% on 2019-01-08
• jamesrom said “The top supercomputer when this prediction was made was Tianhe-1A @ 2.57 petaflop/s. The top supercomputer when this prediction was known was IBM Summit @ 148.6 petaflop/s, a 57x improvement.” on 2020-08-16
• gwern said “seems roughly consistent with https://aiimpacts.org/2019-recent-trends-in-gpu-price-per-flops/” on 2020-08-16
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2020-08-16.