One or more members of predictionbook acknowledges that excluding features with statistically significant coefficients when constructing statistical models is a form pseudo-rationality, and admits below to being guilty of this.

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-22; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 45% on 2020-04-22
• Cato said “Can you clarify? Are you referring to features of the site, or features of models more generally?” on 2020-04-23
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-06-01.
• PseudonymousUser said “I meant it informally, but here is the kind of thing I had in mind. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/199315” on 2020-06-18
• Cato said “OK” on 2020-06-18