Snowden turns himself in to US authorities before 2016

Created by phreeza on 2013-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• phreeza estimated 30% on 2013-07-02
• lavalamp estimated 10% on 2013-07-02
• gwern estimated 15% and said “he has no real incentive” on 2013-07-03
• ShIxtan estimated 10% on 2013-07-05
• Michael Dickens estimated 20% on 2013-07-08
• SPL estimated 20% on 2013-07-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2013-11-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.