HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione.

Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.

  • ygert estimated 25% on 2013-07-02
  • lavalamp estimated 15% on 2013-07-02
  • gwern estimated 20% on 2013-07-03
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-07-10” and changed their prediction from “In HPMOR, the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione.” on 2013-07-03
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-07-03
  • ShIxtan estimated 20% on 2013-07-03
  • ygert estimated 20% on 2013-07-03
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-07-10on 2013-07-11
  • 75th estimated 20% and said “I guess there’s a chance, but Lucius is too politically deft to let this happen.on 2013-07-13
  • azax1 estimated 15% and said “Quite likely will not be shown. We’ve only got so many chapters left.on 2013-07-19
  • Byron Johnson estimated 30% on 2013-07-21
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-07-21on 2013-07-21
  • TheOriginalSoni estimated 12% on 2013-07-25
  • nigr estimated 5% on 2013-08-15
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-21on 2013-08-23
  • Osuniev estimated 10% and said “not now, with the signed contract.on 2013-09-05
  • Smaug estimated 15% on 2013-11-23
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-12-22on 2013-12-12
  • 75th estimated 0% and said “Now that Harry has proclaimed his belief that the Malfoys aren’t guilty, can we safely judge this Wrong?on 2013-12-12
  • ygert said “I suppose.on 2014-01-02
  • ygert  judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-02.

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