HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh .

Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.

  • ygert estimated 3% on 2013-07-03
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-07-03
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2013-07-03
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “I don’t see any legitimate reason for it to turn out that way as we enter the endgameon 2013-07-04
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-01” and changed their prediction from “HPMOR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh .” on 2013-07-04
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-01” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR_: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_ofrationality/9ajh .” on 2013-07-04
  • Benja estimated 10% on 2013-07-04
  • ShIxtan estimated 1% on 2013-07-05
  • Jordan_Hoyt estimated 5% on 2013-07-09
  • William-Quixote estimated 10% on 2013-07-12
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-02” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh .” on 2013-07-13
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-02” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR_: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_ofrationality/9ajh .” on 2013-07-18
  • Osuniev estimated 1% and said ““the very stars in heaven” is way too confusing a way of saying the Black family.on 2013-08-02
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-03on 2013-08-02
  • nigr estimated 1% on 2013-08-15
  • ygert estimated 1% on 2013-08-23
  • Grognor estimated 1% on 2014-01-31
  • jbluphin estimated 5% on 2014-02-01
  • ygert changed the deadline from “on 2014-04-03on 2014-02-06
  • MondSemmel estimated 2% on 2014-12-27
  • ygert  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-23.

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