50-100 US municipal debt defaults by 2012. —Meredith Whitney

Created by gwern on 2010-12-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-12-23
• gwern said “http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/12/22/what-are-the-chances-of-muni-doomsday/ ‘50-100’ ‘100s of billions’ in ’12 months” on 2010-12-23
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meredith_Whitney” on 2010-12-23
• gwern said “checking, seems <10 defaults” on 2012-01-03
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-03.