HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore

Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.

• Flailingjunk estimated 25% on 2013-07-06
• Flailingjunk changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-01” on 2013-07-06
• Flailingjunk estimated 35% on 2013-07-08
• ygert estimated 20% on 2013-07-08
• lavalamp estimated 15% on 2013-07-09
• holycow81 estimated 19% on 2013-07-09
• gwern estimated 30% and said “it certainly is plausible & consistent with canon & lots of death flags, but many other possibilities: Harry, Draco, Lucius, Quirrel…” on 2013-07-13
• Flailingjunk changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-02” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore” on 2013-07-13
• Gurkenglas estimated 30% on 2013-07-14
• Sarokrae estimated 30% on 2013-07-14
• Cakoluchiam estimated 15% and said “Assuming this discounts any events after Harry’s first year in Hogwarts.” on 2013-07-18
• azax1 estimated 5% on 2013-07-19
• nigr estimated 10% and said “why” on 2013-08-15
• jbluphin estimated 40% on 2013-08-15
• JayDee estimated 20% on 2013-08-21
• moridinamael estimated 25% on 2015-01-07
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-23.