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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess

Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.

  • Benja estimated 5% on 2013-07-06
  • Benja said ““Please don’t interpret this whole passage as hinting at anything in particular. I’ll state outright that at the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess.” — end of http://hpmor.com/a-rant-thereof/” on 2013-07-06
  • Benja said “Seems obvious that this is supposed to be an ironic comment reinforcing that nothing in that post is supposed to yield information about future HP:MoR events, but a surprising number of people seem to take it seriously.” on 2013-07-06
  • Benja said “I suppose an omake at the end of the story should count (this has been suggested as an interpretation), since if that happens it would obviously be intended to make this comment literally true.” on 2013-07-06
  • Benja said “But a separate HPMoR/Optimalverse crossover fanfiction by Eliezer would not, because it wouldn’t make the statement literally true (“at the end of [this] story”).” on 2013-07-06
  • ygert said “What if she comes back as an Alicorn princess (rather than an alicorn princess)? That is by far my favorite theory as to what was being hinted at.” on 2013-07-07
  • Benja said “ygert, I’m not sure what exactly that means, but I suppose that sounds like it would be intended to make the statement literally true.” on 2013-07-08
  • ygert said “See http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hws/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9bfr . But let me expand my question: I think it likely that it will come true, but only in a very literal sense.” on 2013-07-08
  • ygert said “So, can I assume that this will be judged true even if she only comes back in a way that taken perfectly literally, and maybe involving a play on words, could be seen as an alicorn princess, if you turn your head sideways and squint?” on 2013-07-08
  • Benja estimated 30% and said “I suppose extremely literal interpretations should count and I need to revise my estimate upward accordingly. But if she comes back as a vampire with an attitude, I’d like to ask Eliezer whether that was really intended to make this true.” on 2013-07-08
  • ygert said “This I know for sure: Eliezer has it all planned up front. This he has said repeatedly. He does not change the story at all based merely on reader speculation.” on 2013-07-08
  • ygert estimated 60% and said “This is my prediction of it happening at all in any form. The vast bulk of this probability involves this only happening as a pun or similar play on words.” on 2013-07-08
  • Benja said “I didn’t mean I want to ask when he thought of it, I meant if it seems very stretched to apply the word “alicorn princess” to what happens, I may want to ask whether it’s just coincidence that the words seem sorta-applicable.” on 2013-07-09
  • holycow81 estimated 10% on 2013-07-09
  • ygert estimated 40% on 2013-07-09
  • Jordan_Hoyt estimated 10% on 2013-07-09
  • Flailingjunk estimated 0% on 2013-07-10
  • William-Quixote estimated 2% on 2013-07-12
  • Roxolan estimated 55% on 2013-07-12
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “I don’t really know what we should interpret this as meaning” on 2013-07-13
  • Benja changed the deadline from “on 2014-07-06” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess” on 2013-07-13
  • 75th estimated 0% on 2013-07-13
  • jasticE estimated 0% on 2013-07-13
  • Gurkenglas estimated 5% on 2013-07-14
  • azax1 estimated 1% on 2013-07-19
  • nigr estimated 0% and said “don t joke about death” on 2013-08-15
  • player_03 estimated 4% on 2014-04-24
  • Jenson estimated 15% on 2014-06-26
  • player_03 estimated 16% and said “Feeling less confident now. I think that when I made that prediction I hadn’t gotten to the part where the word “alicorn” was used in-story.” on 2014-07-06
  • briennestrohl estimated 20% on 2015-03-01
  • briennestrohl estimated 50% on 2015-03-01
  • EloiseRosen estimated 50% on 2015-03-01
  • Roxolan said “And now we argue whether it counts. I say no. Arguably “an alicorn [thing]”, but definitely not a princess. Noble houses aren’t royalty. Close enough to make the joke, but not enough to count as fulfilled prediction.” on 2015-03-14
  • Roxolan said “It’s still an option for the epilogue. Though as per author’s note 122, the epilogue will be posted “as a separate story; what has been written so far is complete as it stands.” Make of that what you will.” on 2015-03-14
  • Roxolan said “Damn you Eliezer, couldn’t you just ascend her into Celestia and save us the trouble?” on 2015-03-14
  • Benja   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-15.
  • Benja said “I think the alicorn + “sparkling unicorn princess” references are clearly enough to count as “intended to make this comment literally true”, in the sense I was talking about upthread.” on 2015-03-15
  • Roxolan said “FWIW, Brienne Strohl, who had a bet with money on it and Yudkowsky himself as judge, decided that neither side can conclusively be said to have won. https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10153102046599598” on 2015-03-15
  • Benja said “Yeah, but Brienne and Topher were both like, if he does it it won’t be in a half-assed way, whereas this prediction was about whether there will be something intended to make the statement true even in a very literal turn-head-and-squint way.” on 2015-03-16
  • player_03 said “I agree with Benja’s judgement. In the world of HPMoR, this is about as close as you can reasonably get to ‘alicorn princess.’” on 2015-03-16
  • Roxolan said “Fair enough.” on 2015-03-16