Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S.

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2013-07-06
• RandomThinker said “Measured by total injuries tallied by the FAA http://www.ntsb.gov/data/table2_2012.html” on 2013-07-06
• RandomThinker said “Total injuries in 2000s = 161. Doesn’t include terrorist related injuries.” on 2013-07-06
• RandomThinker said “I think airlines are being less regulated, and we’ve gotten away with it so far, but maybe it’ll come back to bite us. Like highways.” on 2013-07-06
• RobertLumley said “You really should make this a per capita prediction.” on 2013-07-06
• RandomThinker said “You can scale by the US population if you want but US population in 2020 isn’t going to be that much different from population in 2010.” on 2013-07-06
• RandomThinker said “And it’s really hard to figure out number of people flying. FAA has a convenient count of total injuries.” on 2013-07-06
• gwern estimated 35% and said “I think you’re overweighting recent events” on 2013-07-13
• Porejide estimated 35% on 2013-07-21
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% on 2013-07-22
• pranomostro estimated 40% and said “Adjusting to higher flying rates.” on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 40% on 2018-12-12
• Leo said “This is true for injuries (2001-2010: 141 in 184k flight hours; 2011-2020: 152 in 174k), but reversed for the other accident categories. You may be interested in https://predictionbook.com/predictions/202506” on 2021-12-03
• stepan estimated 10% on 2021-12-29
• stepan   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-03.