'No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-28.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-12-26
• gwern said “will be interpreted strictly as just about the listed corporations” on 2010-12-26
• gwern said “low prediction because while FB clearly doesn’t need an IPO, the other 3 seem somewhat plausible and only one has to IPO to falsify.” on 2010-12-26
• gwern changed their prediction from “'No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brian” on 2010-12-26
• kallman estimated 45% and said “If FB went for an offering, Zynga might too. I think these are stable enough as is though…” on 2010-12-30
• gwern said “http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40898422/ns/business-us_business/ but http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2066679” on 2011-01-04
• gwern said “may be falsified soon: rumors LinkedIn is filing: http://kara.allthingsd.com/20110127/here-comes-another-web-ipo-linkedin-s-1-filing-imminent/” on 2011-01-27
• gwern said “and it apparently is official now: http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/01/linkedin-ipo-2/Marking this one wrong!” on 2011-01-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-01-28.