[Regardless of who is president] There will be riots and/or civil unrest in the US, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots in the next four years.
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged unknown by gwern on 2020-09-05.
- Ragnarok_Reverted estimated 43% on 2020-08-30
- NickN estimated 60% on 2020-08-30
- product estimated 70% on 2020-09-01
- najdorf estimated 80% on 2020-09-04
- JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2020-09-04
- two2thehead said “Two problems I can see. How this is judged is not stated and the known on date is way too early. I hate to start off with a criticism but…” on 2020-09-04
- anandjeyahar estimated 65% on 2020-09-05
- anandjeyahar judged this prediction right on 2020-09-05.
- gwern judged this prediction unknown on 2020-09-05.
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