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[Regardless of who is president] There will be riots and/or civil unrest in the US, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots in the next four years.

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged unknown by gwern on 2020-09-05.

  • Ragnarok_Reverted estimated 43% on 2020-08-30
  • NickN estimated 60% on 2020-08-30
  • product estimated 70% on 2020-09-01
  • najdorf estimated 80% on 2020-09-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2020-09-04
  • two2thehead said “Two problems I can see. How this is judged is not stated and the known on date is way too early. I hate to start off with a criticism but…on 2020-09-04
  • anandjeyahar estimated 65% on 2020-09-05
  • anandjeyahar   judged this prediction right on 2020-09-05.
  • gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2020-09-05.

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