HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person

Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.

ygert estimated 85% on 2013-07-08
lavalamp estimated 35% on 2013-07-09
Jordan_Hoyt estimated 70% on 2013-07-09
Flailingjunk estimated 10% and said “It’s a suspicious detail, but not much to go on. ” on 2013-07-10
Muke Tever estimated 18% and said “Strongest evidence against is that he recolored the gem, which draws attention to the ring – and I don’t think he’d gamble on Dumbledore overlooking it once he noticed.” on 2013-07-11
Petruchio estimated 15% and said “It is strange that Harry is pretty non-chalant about Hermione’s body being missing when he is trying to bring her back. But I do not think he transfigured her into a rock, then into the diamond.” on 2013-07-11
ygert said “@Petruchio: Reread the prediction. It does not predict that she was transfigured into the rock and then into the diamond, but rather that the diamond was the rock as Dumbledore expected, and the ring was transfigured from Hermione.” on 2013-07-11
ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-06” and changed their prediction from “HPMOR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person. (” on 2013-07-11
tedks estimated 1% and said “This is irredeemably dumb.” on 2013-07-11
William-Quixote estimated 75% on 2013-07-12
ShIxtan estimated 20% on 2013-07-12
gwern estimated 40% and said “it is dumb, but we don’t have any other clues as to what’s been done with Hermione’s body or what Harry was doing in the room etc” on 2013-07-13
ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-06” and changed their prediction from “HPMOR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person.” on 2013-07-13
75th estimated 85% on 2013-07-13
jasticE estimated 23% on 2013-07-13
Gurkenglas estimated 70% on 2013-07-14
Sarokrae estimated 60% on 2013-07-14
Flailingjunk estimated 20% and said “The ring is mentioned immediately after his vigil. Another suspicious detail. ” on 2013-07-15
Robert estimated 10% on 2013-07-17
HonoreDB estimated 40% on 2013-07-19
azax1 estimated 10% on 2013-07-19
tedks said “Anyone with >50% on this like to bet on it?” on 2013-07-19
DubiousTwizzler estimated 90% on 2013-07-22
TheOriginalSoni estimated 89% on 2013-07-25
mjr estimated 50% on 2013-08-01
ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-08-07” on 2013-08-08
nigr estimated 0% and said “dumbie is too powerful” on 2013-08-15
JayDee estimated 30% on 2013-08-21
ygert said “@tedks: My finances are not such that I can make a monetary bet, but I want to bet regardless. For a while there has been discussion on Less Wrong about making it possible to bet in karma.” on 2013-08-23
ygert said “This would be ideal if it existed, but as of now it doesn’t. Despite that, here’s the bet: If I’m right, you transfer to me X karma, if and when it becomes possible to do so, and if I win I will transfer to you Y karma,” on 2013-08-23
ygert said “again, if and when it becomes possible to do so. This predicates the bet on Less Wong getting this feature, but I am willing to accept that. If you are to, just say so anytime before the answer is revealed in the story. (And give your LW username.)” on 2013-08-23
ygert said “Oh, and what do you want X and Y to be? ” on 2013-08-23
Smaug estimated 60% on 2013-11-23
ygert estimated 90% on 2013-12-06
JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2013-12-06
ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-12-07” on 2013-12-07
ygert changed the deadline from “on 2013-12-13” on 2013-12-12
ygert changed the deadline from “on 2014-02-01” on 2014-01-02
DEA7TH estimated 2% and said “One would also check the ring.” on 2014-02-28
qznc estimated 30% on 2014-07-14
tedks judged this prediction wrong on 2015-02-28.