Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today.
- gwern estimated 70% on 2010-12-27
- gwern said “Current price according to Google: 178.14For the short case, see http://seekingalpha.com/article/242320-whitney-tilson-why-we-re-short-netflix” on 2010-12-27
- kallman estimated 65% and said “Me always edging you to nuetral. Depends on Net Neutrality which is contentious.” on 2010-12-30
- kallman said “That is, without neutrality, netflix suffers, of course.” on 2010-12-30
- gwern said “Update: hedge fund has covered its shorts eaten the loss http://seekingalpha.com/article/252316-whitney-tilson-why-we-covered-our-netflix-short” on 2011-02-11
- gwern said “current price: 113. wow; my own best guess as to why it would fall was something to do with licensors, and then they went and split themselves…” on 2011-10-02
- gwern said “Google tells me current price is $73 a share (split was canceled so that’s not an issue). closing wrong – not going to more than double in one day” on 2011-12-25
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-25.
- bobpage judged this prediction right on 2011-12-27.
- bobpage said ““Netflix’s stock price will be lower next year than today.” – is it not lower?” on 2011-12-27
- gwern said “haha whoops, I don’t know what I was thinking there” on 2011-12-27
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