Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today.

Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by bobpage on 2011-12-27.

  • gwern estimated 70% on 2010-12-27
  • gwern said “Current price according to Google: 178.14For the short case, see 2010-12-27
  • kallman estimated 65% and said “Me always edging you to nuetral. Depends on Net Neutrality which is contentious.on 2010-12-30
  • kallman said “That is, without neutrality, netflix suffers, of course.on 2010-12-30
  • gwern said “Update: hedge fund has covered its shorts eaten the loss 2011-02-11
  • gwern said “current price: 113. wow; my own best guess as to why it would fall was something to do with licensors, and then they went and split themselves…on 2011-10-02
  • gwern said “Google tells me current price is $73 a share (split was canceled so that’s not an issue). closing wrong – not going to more than double in one dayon 2011-12-25
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-25.
  • bobpage  judged this prediction right on 2011-12-27.
  • bobpage said ““Netflix’s stock price will be lower next year than today.” – is it not lower?on 2011-12-27
  • gwern said “haha whoops, I don’t know what I was thinking thereon 2011-12-27

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