Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today.

Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-12-27
• gwern said “Current price according to Google: 178.14For the short case, see http://seekingalpha.com/article/242320-whitney-tilson-why-we-re-short-netflix” on 2010-12-27
• kallman estimated 65% and said “Me always edging you to nuetral. Depends on Net Neutrality which is contentious.” on 2010-12-30
• kallman said “That is, without neutrality, netflix suffers, of course.” on 2010-12-30
• gwern said “Update: hedge fund has covered its shorts eaten the loss http://seekingalpha.com/article/252316-whitney-tilson-why-we-covered-our-netflix-short” on 2011-02-11
• gwern said “current price: 113. wow; my own best guess as to why it would fall was something to do with licensors, and then they went and split themselves…” on 2011-10-02
• gwern said “Google tells me current price is $73 a share (split was canceled so that’s not an issue). closing wrong – not going to more than double in one day” on 2011-12-25
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-25.
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-27.
• PseudonymousUser said ““Netflix’s stock price will be lower next year than today.” – is it not lower?” on 2011-12-27
• gwern said “haha whoops, I don’t know what I was thinking there” on 2011-12-27