I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-09; known on 2033-07-09

• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-07-09
• gwern estimated 25% on 2013-07-13
• saturn estimated 33% and said “Average of JoshuaZ’s estimate and 50%” on 2013-07-13
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2013-07-14
• pranomostro estimated 20% and said “Unclear resolution criteria, but anyway.” on 2018-12-08