'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 —Brian Breslin

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-12-29
• gwern said “http://brianbreslin.com/2011-predictions/” on 2010-12-29
• gwern said “hesitant to be so strongly against. dont know what revenue distribution looks like or what Youtube is like, but between low novelty, personal income taxes etc” on 2010-12-29
• kallman estimated 1% and said “Youtube partners simply don’t make enough. It’s ad revenue, right? You’d need interestinbg, subscriber-attracting videos all year…” on 2010-12-30
• kallman said “I can’t imagine a channel bringing in more than a couple thousand dollars a month, even if it’s really good.” on 2010-12-30
• kallman said “And uh, Partner program is pretty new, call it maybe get 3/4 of it in 2011? Still giant hurdle.” on 2010-12-30
• benbusse   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-01-03.
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-01-04.
• gwern said “can make a fair amount on youtube: 18k+ from truck videos cited here http://www.duckworksmagazine.com/11/columns/guest/winter/index.htm” on 2011-01-04
• gwern said “on the other hand, Black won’t make much: http://www.slate.com/id/2289341/” on 2011-03-25
• PseudonymousUser said ““[…] There are even stars who have topped a million dollars, although the company wouldn’t say how many” http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/youtube_millionaires_3h5V8I6FdnVLxQKbwOthoI” on 2012-01-03
• PseudonymousUser said “http://willvideoforfood.com/2011/04/01/ray-william-johnson-is-youtubes-first-millionaire-creator/” on 2012-01-03
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-03.
• Larklight said “5” on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “http://brianbreslin.com/2011-predictions-recap/ says this one could be judged either way, with rebecca black as an example (although I suspect her production company took most of the profits)” on 2012-01-08