Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023.

Created by gwern on 2010-12-30; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2023-01-02.

• gwern estimated 85% on 2010-12-30
• gwern said “http://techliberation.com/2009/08/06/copyright-duration-and-the-mickey-mouse-curve/” on 2010-12-30
• gwern said “note general phrasing; extension via new copyright act, executive order, library of congress shenanigans – it’s all good.” on 2010-12-30
• kallman said “Disney is lobbying for things to be as useless as possible. To quote the new york time’s caption contests, “Christ, what assholes”.” on 2010-12-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 96% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 70% on 2019-01-08
• qznc estimated 80% on 2022-01-02
• gwern said “Really surprisingly, Disney seems to be letting it fall into PD and instead counting on trademarks and franchises as the bastion to protect the Mouse.” on 2023-01-02
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-02.